How Trade Policy Shifts Impact Freight Rates and Small Carriers - Saint John Capital

You’ve seen the headlines. Have you stopped to consider what they’re telling trucking company owners? The impact of trade policy shifts is great, and it’s time to consider how they’re going to impact your revenues in the next year or two. 

For American trucking company owners, recovery after the pandemic never materialized. Instead, fluctuating fuel prices, rising tariffs, higher truck and trailer costs, and changing rules for CDL licenses and company requirements all affect your revenues. Trade policy shifts are hard to control and are seriously impacting trucking companies. 

Steel tariffs influence truck and van prices. Over the past year, the price rose by 0.6%, which might not seem like much, but it adds up to $720 more on a $120,000 truck. Even small price increases cut into profits. Changes in nearshoring are also making it tougher for small carriers to stay solvent, and all of this is affecting freight rates.

How Trade Policies Are Driving Up Your Equipment Costs

One of the main trade policies impacting the trucking industry is tariffs. The current president has used executive orders to impose tariffs on numerous countries. 

  • Canada – 35% unless the goods are part of the USMCA
  • European Union – Up to 15%
  • India – 50% 
  • Japan – 15% 
  • Mexico – 25% for goods outside the USMCA
  • Philippines – 19%
  • South Korea – 15%
  • Switzerland – 39%
  • United Kingdom – 10%
  • Vietnam – 20% 

The tariff is paid when items arrive at a port of entry. If you’re picking up a container there, customs brokers often pay on behalf of the importer, usually the retailer or small business. While a trucking company owner doesn’t pay the tariffs directly, the costs are passed on to others. Tighter margins and higher operating costs affect revenue. 

The other way to cover the cost of tariffs is by raising prices. Consumers start paying more for everything. Trucking companies face higher costs for travel, truck parts, tires, fuel, and more.

  • Sumitomo Rubber North America increased tire prices by up to 10% on commercial truck tires and 25% on other tires.
  • Average gasoline prices jumped from $3.50 at the beginning of March 2026 to $3.961 on March 23rd. Prices were up 84.6 cents per gallon from 2025.
  • Average diesel prices jumped from $4.859 to $5.375, up $1.808 from 2025 levels.
  • Oil changes and truck repairs cost 15% to 20% more, particularly if foreign parts or sensors are required.

Whether you’re aiming to expand or in need of newer trucks and trailers, trade policies will increase your expenses. Start with the fact that nearly half of the Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are manufactured in Mexico. With Section 232 tariffs imposing a 25% duty if the trucks and components don’t meet USMCA rules on the percentage of the truck that must be made in the USA, your costs will go up.

Suppose you pay 25% more for your truck, so a $150,000 vehicle now costs $187,500. You also face a 12% Federal Excise Tax on the total sales price. As a result, you’re now spending $210,000 on a new truck.

That’s going to force many smaller trucking companies to avoid expanding their fleets or to buy used trucks instead. Used trucks are more affordable, but you inherit any existing issues caused by higher mileage, wear and tear, or poor maintenance. As you make repairs, you pay extra if parts are sourced from other countries.

That’s just the equipment you need to do your job. In 2027, the new EPA emissions mandate takes place. It’s time to make plans now for light-duty vehicles, which have decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards: 170 grams per mile in 2027, dropping to 85 grams per mile by 2032. 

The standards for medium-duty vehicles are 392 grams/mile in 2027, dropping to 245 grams/mile by 2032 for vans, or 497 grams/mile to 290 grams/mile for medium-duty trucks.

As manufacturers work to meet these requirements, it’s expected that both warranties and truck costs will be impacted.

Long Haul Is Experiencing a Decline

Until recently, the Golden Route from the Midwest to Coastal California was the money-maker. That’s changing. It used to be that many goods would arrive on the West Coast and travel across the U.S. to the states east of the Mississippi River. 

With rising tariffs, more shipments are arriving from the Mexican border and then heading to regional distribution hubs. Long-haul work isn’t as common as it used to be. Regional runs to distribution centers are where drivers are needed. 

If you find long-haul work, you must avoid wasteful deadhead miles. If you’re driving thousands of miles for a drop and coming back with an empty trailer, you’re wasting the opportunity to increase your profits. 

You need careful route planning and to make sure your trailer is full both ways. This is easy to do if you use load-finding job boards and optimize routes using route-planning software. 

As routes change, some states are increasing road tolls, which also impacts your cash flow. For example:

  • California: A 50-cent toll increase on all state-owned bridges.
  • Colorado: Weighing a 3% toll increase for drivers using express lanes (except the I-70 Mountain).
  • New Jersey/New York: New Jersey and New York E-ZPass holders receive smaller discounts for off-peak travel across the Governor Mario M. Cuomo Bridge.
  • New Jersey: The New Jersey Turnpike is increasing tolls by 3%.
  • New York: The New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority approved a 7.5% increase for all tolls.
  • Ohio: An increase of 2.7% impacts the Ohio Turnpike.
  • Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania Turnpike is increasing tolls by 33% to 87% for travel across the Delaware River.
  • Texas: Ford Bend and Harris counties in Texas increased tolls by 2%.

Staying updated with these changes helps you cut costs on the road, but you might also want to consider altering your trucking company’s structure.

Small Carriers Benefit From the Changes

While changes in trade policy may hurt some, small carriers can gain an advantage by focusing on regional operations. Build a reputation as a reliable trucking team for shorter routes. 

Factoring is one of the best ways to prepare for and navigate through changes. When you’re taking jobs and delivering items for brokers or shippers, you shouldn’t have to wait 30, 60, or 90 days to get paid. You have bills to pay and trucks to keep on the road.

Freight factoring is a service where you sell unpaid invoices to a factor at a discount. That discount, say, of 3% ensures you’re paid the same day or within no more than two business days. Instead of floating your regular expenses on credit cards or by draining your savings, you have money in your hand for fuel, truck repairs, maintenance, meals, wages, insurance, and other essentials.

You can use the app to submit payment requests when you’re on the road. You don’t have to stop and return to the office, which wastes valuable driving time. Non-recourse factoring protects you against unexpected closures and bankruptcies. Plus, you can use free business credit checks to investigate new clients before you agree to work for them.

Ask Saint John Capital about our freight factoring partnership. Not only do you get paid quickly, but we also arrange a gas card that entitles you to discounts on every gallon of gas or diesel. You save money while making money.